WY-05-23 / 01
Primary Hypotheses, Alternatives, and Neutrality
Continuation and Complex Structures
Lesson / WY-05-23
Before a trading range is complete, accumulation and redistribution, or distribution and reaccumulation, often look similar. Analysis must begin with observed action and ask which explanation best fits current evidence. Provisionally rank the better fit as the primary hypothesis and retain the other as an alternative. They must make different predictions for the next move: which side price leaves, whether it remains outside, and where a retest should hold. The ranking indicates a current preference, not a guarantee of future direction.
Course content is for learning and research only. It is not investment advice.
Read the Chapter ↗Timestamps
7 lessons · Chapter contents
01Primary Hypotheses, Alternatives, and Neutrality↗02Two Interpretations of a Range After a Decline↗03Two Interpretations of a Range After an Advance↗04Supporting Behavior and Contrary Evidence↗05Persuasive Evidence Versus Repeated Labels↗06What Observations Distinguish the Two Explanations?↗07Updating, Deferring, Switching, and Not Trading↗Observe the market: start with context and place price within its structure.
Understand structure: compare supply and demand, and let evidence support or revise your hypothesis.
Form a view: define risk limits and know when to reassess.
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Reaccumulation, Redistribution, and Complex Schematics
