WY-05-23 / 05
Persuasive Evidence Versus Repeated Labels
Continuation and Complex Structures
Lesson / WY-05-23
Evidence is more persuasive when it rules out an alternative more effectively; visual prominence does not equal evidential strength. One enormous-volume bar may reflect active supply, demand absorption, or a news shock. Without estimating its probability under each hypothesis, prominence alone cannot establish discrimination. Persistent trading outside after a breakout, a successful retest, and continued progress more directly conflict with a failed-breakout explanation and therefore usually separate the hypotheses better. Read volume, spread, close, and subsequent response together.
Course content is for learning and research only. It is not investment advice.
Read the Chapter ↗Timestamps
7 lessons · Chapter contents
01Primary Hypotheses, Alternatives, and Neutrality↗02Two Interpretations of a Range After a Decline↗03Two Interpretations of a Range After an Advance↗04Supporting Behavior and Contrary Evidence↗05Persuasive Evidence Versus Repeated Labels↗06What Observations Distinguish the Two Explanations?↗07Updating, Deferring, Switching, and Not Trading↗Observe the market: start with context and place price within its structure.
Understand structure: compare supply and demand, and let evidence support or revise your hypothesis.
Form a view: define risk limits and know when to reassess.
No matching captions.
Reaccumulation, Redistribution, and Complex Schematics
