WY-06-29 / 11
Samples, Future Information, Out-of-Sample Testing, and Costs
Decisions, Execution & Validation
Lesson / WY-06-29
Define the market universe, period, liquidity conditions, and inclusion rules before selecting samples. Keeping only currently listed or subsequently successful instruments creates survivorship bias; selecting only visually textbook Springs omits ambiguous candidates inevitably encountered live. Handle delistings, contract rolls, suspensions, corporate actions, and missing data appropriately to the study and retain records.
Course content is for learning and research only. It is not investment advice.
Read the Chapter ↗Timestamps
13 lessons · Chapter contents
01Price and Time Expectations After Entry↗02Meeting Expectations, Underperforming, and Contrary Evidence↗03Changes in Holdings, Cost, and Risk After Scaling In or Out↗04Structural Exits, Time Exits, and Moving Stops↗05Improvised Plan Changes Versus Evidence-Based Rule Revisions↗06Execution Deviations and Their Technical Consequences↗07Four-Layer Review: Observation, Interpretation, Decision, and Execution↗08Initial Risk Amount R₀ and After-Cost R↗09MAE, MFE, and the Entire Trade's Continuous Net PnL Curve↗10Operational Definitions of Trading Rules↗11Samples, Future Information, Out-of-Sample Testing, and Costs↗12Win Rate, Profit/Loss Distribution, Expectancy, and Drawdown↗13Rule Changes and Version Control↗Observe the market: start with context and place price within its structure.
Understand structure: compare supply and demand, and let evidence support or revise your hypothesis.
Form a view: define risk limits and know when to reassess.
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Relative Strength and Opportunity Screening
Point-and-Figure Charts and Price Target Estimation
